When Will COVID-19 End

Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (Updated as of April 21, 2020)

SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model is regressed based on the data from different countries to predict the key dates of transition during the epidemic lifecycle in different countries. The prediction is updated with newer data. Codes from Milan Batista. Data from Our World in Data

Singapore

End around July 23

United States

End around June 14

United Kingdom

End around June 9

Canada

End around June 11

France

End around June 6

Germany

End around June 2

Spain

End around May 7

Italy

End around May 4

Turkey

End date around May 13

United Arab Emirates

End around 19 May

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